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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."